College Hoops: Cleaning Up the AP Poll

The college basketball season tipped off Friday, with the exception of the games that were scheduled to be played on aircraft carriers, which were promptly cancelled because—much to the surprise of the NCAA—aircraft carriers are located outdoors, where moisture has the tendency of forming from time to time and can, like, get on the court and make things slippery.   So not as many games tipped off as were scheduled to, but there were still some interesting developments on the court, most notably UConn knocking off Michigan State.  This was surprising because Connecticut should be bad after losing two players to the NBA and their HOF coach since a year ago—when they weren’t that good really anyway.  (To be fair, one of those “NBA players” was Andre Drummond.)  

Tom Izzo's fan club will again be annoying throughout the winter.

But despite last night’s results, there is one thing that is for certain, and it’s that Michigan State will still be very good.  As annoying as it is for a Wisconsin alumnus to admit, you know that the Izzone will be rocking all the way through February, and Sparty will enter the NCAA tournament with no worse than a 5-seed.  The AP ranked them at #14 in their preseason poll, and this seems fair, which is more than can be said for many of their other rankings. 

It’s pretty obvious that a lot of teams are just not ranked correctly, just as it was obvious in football that teams like Florida State, and Michigan had no business being ranked as high as they were in the preseason poll.  Unfortunately, I cannot prove that I knew the Seminoles and Wolverines were overrated going into the football season, because I didn’t fearlessly post those thoughts on a blog that nobody reads.  To avoid duplicating such a misstep, I hereby present what’s wrong with the AP preseason poll:

 

WHATS WRONG WITH THE AP PRESEASON POLL

Slightly Overrated Teams: 2. Louisville, 11. North Carolina

It’s difficult to pick the elite teams without seeing them, but Louisville will surely not enter the NCAA’s with a 1-seed.  They have experience, sure, but they are also starting Gorgui Dieng, whose offensive skills are so poor that by comparison Drummond actually looks like a lottery pick. A Sweet 16 team probably—but they’re not that special.



Rick Pitino will have to deal with Gorgui Dieng's overrated post play for one more season.

North Carolina lost a lot from last season.  Also they just disgust me.  Number 11 is too high. 

Very Overrated—Possibly/Likely Will Not Be Ranked by the End of the Season and Potentially NIT-bound Teams: 5. Michigan, 6. NC State

Both teams on paper have the talent to be ranked here, but anybody who follows college hoops closely knows both teams are much more likely to end up sixth in their conference than sixth in the nation. NC State had a nice run in last year’s tournament that many took as a sign of things to come, and Trey Burke showed flashes of greatness for the Wolverines last year and has plenty of support.  But somehow it won’t matter. 

 

Has the AP Even Observed the Pac-12 the Past Few Seasons? Teams: 12. Arizona, 13. UCLA



Josh Smith remains huge.  The Pac-12 remains bad.

As much as preseason polls have wanted the Pac-12 to be a real conference the past few seasons, that just hasn’t been the case. For the majority of the last two years the Pac-12 has struggled to have a single team ranked in the top 25.   I don’t see why it will be any different this year.  One of these two teams may end up somewhere in the 20-25 range; the other will be lucky to experience March Madness in-person. 

 

The Potentially Underrated Teams: 8. Duke, 16. Creighton, 23. Wisconsin, NR Minnesota, NR Pittsburgh, NR Marquette, NR West Virginia

 

 

Doug McDermott looks to defend his "Best Player in the Nation to Wear a T-shirt Under His Uniform" Honors

The one thing that gets overlooked consistently in these preseason polls is coaching. Too much focus is put on players leaving/returning/arriving while the consistently good/poor coach lurks in the shadows like something lurking in the shadows.  Duke, Wisconsin, Pitt, Marquette and West Virginia are all well-coached and likely to make a move by season’s end.   Creighton’s talent is underrated (I may be underrating coach Greg McDermott as well.) and Minnesota’s talent and experience is being overlooked (enough to make up for subpar coaching). 
 

__________________________________


I realize I am not backing these predictions with hard numbers, but that is sort of the point.  This doesn't take statistics to figure out; it's common sense.  Check back in three or four months and tell me I'm wrong (unless I actually am).